期刊
HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES JOURNAL
卷 65, 期 3, 页码 470-486出版社
TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD
DOI: 10.1080/02626667.2019.1702989
关键词
climate change; groundwater recharge; Yucatan Peninsula Mexico; monthly water balance model
资金
- CONACYT-Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnologia [220474]
The aim of this paper is to estimate the effect that climate change will have on groundwater recharge at the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico. The groundwater recharge is calculated from a monthly water balance model considering eight methods of potential and actual evapotranspiration. Historical data from 1961-2000 and climate model outputs from five downscaled general circulation models in the near horizon (2015-2039), with representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 are used. The results estimate a recharge of 118 +/- 33 mm center dot year(-1) (around 10% of precipitation) in the historical period. Considering the uncertainty from GCMs under different RCP and evapotranspiration scenarios, our monthly water balance model estimates a groundwater recharge of 92 +/- 40 mm center dot year(-1) (RCP4.5) and 94 +/- 38 mm center dot year(-1) (RCP8.5) which represent a reduction of 23% and 20%, respectively, a result that threatens the socio-ecological balance of the region.
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