期刊
BIORESOURCE TECHNOLOGY
卷 196, 期 -, 页码 49-56出版社
ELSEVIER SCI LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.biortech.2015.07.073
关键词
Pyrolysis; In situ; Ex situ; Techno-economics analysis; Uncertainty analysis
资金
- US Department of Energy
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory [167288]
- EPSCoR
- Office Of The Director [1101284] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
This study evaluates the techno-economic uncertainty in cost estimates for two emerging technologies for biofuel production: in situ and ex situ catalytic pyrolysis. The probability distributions for the minimum fuel-selling price (MFSP) indicate that in situ catalytic pyrolysis has an expected MFSP of $1.11 per liter with a standard deviation of 0.29, while the ex situ catalytic pyrolysis has a similar MFSP with a smaller deviation ($1.13 per liter and 0.21 respectively). These results suggest that a biorefinery based on ex situ catalytic pyrolysis could have a lower techno-economic uncertainty than in situ pyrolysis compensating for a slightly higher MFSP cost estimate. Analysis of how each parameter affects the NPV indicates that internal rate of return, feedstock price, total project investment, electricity price, biochar yield and bio-oil yield are parameters which have substantial impact on the MFSP for both in situ and ex situ catalytic pyrolysis. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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