A nomogram to predict survival of patients with intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinoma after transarterial chemoembolization combined with microwave ablation

Objectives To develop a prognostic nomogram based on the albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade for prediction of the long-term survival of patients with intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after transarterial chemoembolization combined with microwave ablation (TACE-MWA). Methods We retrospectively studied 546 consecutive patients with intermediate-stage HCC according to the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer guidelines who underwent TACE-MWA between January 2000 and December 2016. Overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) were analyzed. The predictive value of the ALBI grade was investigated. The prognostic nomogram was constructed using the independent predictors assessed by the multivariate Cox proportional hazards model. Results After a median follow-up of 35.0 months (range, 4.0-221.0 months), 380 patients had died. The median OS was 35.0 months (95% confidence interval (CI), 30.84-39.16 months), and the median PFS was 6.5 months (95% CI, 6.13-6.87 months). The ALBI grade was validated as an independent predictor of OS (p < 0.001). Multivariate analyses showed that Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status score more than 0, presence of liver cirrhosis, a-fetoprotein level above 400 ng/mL, tumor size greater than 5 cm, tumor number more than 3, advanced ALBI grade, and treatment sessions of TACE or MWA fewer than 3 were independently associated with overall mortality. The prognostic nomogram incorporating these eight predictors achieved good calibration and discriminatory abilities with a concordance index of 0.770 (95% CI, 0.746-0.795). Conclusions The prognostic nomogram based on the ALBI grade resulted in reliable efficacy for prediction of individualized OS in patients with intermediate-stage HCC after TACE-MWA.