期刊
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
卷 15, 期 2, 页码 -出版社
IOP PUBLISHING LTD
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab6399
关键词
arctic climate change; regional climate modeling; cyclone activity; Barents Sea; atlantic water inflow
资金
- project 'The linkage between polar air-sea ice-ocean interaction, Arctic climate change and Northern hemisphere weather and climate extremes.(POLEX)' - Russian Science Foundation (RSF) [18-47-06203]
- Helmholz association (Helmholtz-RSF)
- Russian Science Foundation (RSF) [19-17-00240]
- RFBR [18-05-60216, 18-35-00091, 17-29-05098, 18-0560111]
- Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG, German Research Foundation) within the Transregional Collaborative Research Center 'ArctiC Amplification: Climate Relevant Atmospheric and SurfaCe Processes, and Feedback Mechanisms (AC)3' [268020496 -TRR 172]
The impact of the Atlantic water inflow (AW inflow) into the Barents Sea on the regional cyclone activity in winter is analyzed in 10 ensemble simulations with the coupled Arctic atmosphere-ocean-sea ice model HIRHAM-NAOSIM for the 1979-2016 period. The model shows a statistically robust connection between AW inflow and climate variability in the Barents Sea. The analysis reveals that anomalously high AW inflow leads to changes in static stability and wind shear in the lower troposphere, and thus favorable conditions for cyclogenesis in the Barents/Kara Seas. The frequency of occurrence of cyclones, but particularly of intense cyclones, is increased over the Barents Sea. Furthermore, the cyclones in the Barents Sea become larger (increased radius) and stronger (increased intensity) in response to an increased AW inflow into the Barents Sea, compared to years of anomalously low AW inflow.
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