期刊
ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT
卷 192, 期 1, 页码 -出版社
SPRINGER
DOI: 10.1007/s10661-019-7994-y
关键词
High mountain lake; Surface water temperature; Climate change; S-curve; Poland
资金
- National Key R&D Program of China [2018YFC0407200]
- China Postdoctoral Science Foundation [2018M640499]
- Yellow River Institute of Hydraulic Research Scientific Development Fund [201910]
- Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute [Y118009]
Lake surface water temperature (LSWT) is a key indicator which drives ecosystem structure and function. Quantifying the impact of climate change on LSWT variations is thus of great significance. In this study, observed data of LSWT during the period 1969-2018 in a high mountain lake (Morskie Oko Lake, Central Europe) were analyzed. The results showed that the prominent warming of the LSWT and air temperature began around 1997. A logistic non-linear S-curve function was used to model monthly average LSWT. The non-linear model performed well to capture monthly average LSWT and air temperature relationships (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient 0.86 and the root mean squared error 1.63 degrees C). Using the 2009-2018 period as base scenario, a sensitivity analysis was conducted. The results showed that the annual mean LSWT will likely increase about +1.29 degrees C and +2.64 degrees C with air temperature increases of +2 degrees C and +4 degrees C respectively at the end of the twenty-first century. If realized, such a scenario will cause serious consequences on lake ecosystem.
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