期刊
ENERGY POLICY
卷 135, 期 -, 页码 -出版社
ELSEVIER SCI LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2019.111006
关键词
Electric vehicle; CO2 fleet regulation; Fuel economy; EV market penetration; Technology adoption model; Climate policy
资金
- Ministry of Science, Research and the Arts
- Ministry of Economic Affairs, Labour and Housing in Baden-WUrttemberg
- German Federal Ministry of Research and Education (ENavi project) [FKZ 03SFK4N0]
Fuel economy regulation is a powerful instrument to reduce CO2 emissions of vehicles. CO2 emissions from transport have to be dramatically reduced to reach ambitious CO2 targets, but fuel economy standards below 75 gCO(2)/lan (72.8 MPG) cannot be reached with combustion engine vehicles but require plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs). However, the specific relationship between stringent fuel economy standards and PEV market share is unclear. Here, we analyse CO2 fleet targets in Europe where Regulation (EU) 2019/631 sets a target of 59.4 gCO(2)/Iun (90.9 MPG) in 2030. We use data of 3.2 million records with model-specific car sales in Europe from 2010 to 2016 to project future sales and CO2 emissions of all major vehicle manufacturers. We analyse the required PEV sales for these manufacturers to fulfill the CO2 targets and compare them to the manufacturers' announced sales targets. Our results demonstrate that regulation's target leads to PEV sales shares between 27 and 41% in 2030. The lower value is required if all manufacturers only sell BEV and the upper if only PHEV. In conclusion, ambitious CO2 fleet regulation leads to fast market diffusion of PEVs, but the current regulation is less ambitious than car maker targets in 2025.
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