RES-T trajectories and an integrated SWOT-AHP analysis for biomethane. Policy implications to support a green revolution in European transport

Europe is attempting to accelerate the development of renewables and, within the 2030 climate and energy framework, is required to achieve a share of renewable energy of at least 32%. However, the current share of renewables in the European transport sector (RES-T) is not adequate for reaching the 2020 target. The present work presents the trajectories of each Member State (MS) in attempting to achieve this goal and compares each MS in terms of RES-T, expressed in both percentage and per capita terms. Average European performance is used as a reference value. The results show that Sweden occupies a leading position, followed by Austria, Finland and France. At the same time, the trajectories of most MSs are not encouraging, but they may potentially be improved by the use of biomethane. This work analyses the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats (SWOT) of this green gas. Several SWOT factors are examined and their relevance in a policy context is quantified using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The resulting integrated SWOT-AHP analysis defines a global factor priority. The work concludes that biomethane can potentially replace natural gas as a sustainable vehicle fuel, but its development is strictly linked to the adoption of governmental support programmes to stimulate market growth.