4.7 Article

Interrelated ecological impacts of climate change on an apex predator

期刊

ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS
卷 30, 期 4, 页码 -

出版社

WILEY
DOI: 10.1002/eap.2071

关键词

Arctic; body condition; climate change; genetic mark-recapture; Greenland; Nunavut; polar bear; reproduction; sea ice

资金

  1. Air Greenland
  2. Applied Physics Laboratory (University of Washington)
  3. Avannaa Resources Inc. (Copenhagen)
  4. Bureau of Mineral and Petroleum (Nuuk)
  5. Canada Department of National Defense
  6. Environment and Climate Change Canada
  7. Environmental Protection Agency (Ministry of Environment and Food of Denmark) DANCEA Programme
  8. Government of Nunavut
  9. Greenland Department of Fisheries, Hunting and Agriculture
  10. Greenland Institute of Natural Resources (GINR)
  11. Greenland Pharmaceutical Authority
  12. Hospital in Upernavik -Peqqik
  13. Association of Greenland Hunters and Fishermen
  14. KNAPK
  15. Kullorsuaq School
  16. Mitteqarfik airport in Qaarsut
  17. Mitteqarfik airport in Upernavik
  18. Mittimatalik Hunters and Trappers Organization
  19. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Development and Testing of Potential Indicators for the National Climate Assessment program grant [NNX13AN28G]
  20. NASA Climate and Biological Response grant [NNX11A063G]
  21. Namautaq Hunters and Trappers Organization
  22. Nativak Hunters and Trappers Organization
  23. Nuna Minerals Inc.
  24. Nunavut General Monitoring Program
  25. Nunavut Wildlife Management Board
  26. Parks Canada Agency
  27. Polar Continental Shelf Project
  28. Qaanaap Kommunia
  29. Qikiqtaaluk Corporation
  30. Quantum Murray LP
  31. Royal Canadian Mounted Police
  32. Thule Air Force Base
  33. Universal Helicopters
  34. University of Oslo
  35. Upernavik Seafood
  36. Uummannaq Sundhedscenter -Peqqik
  37. Vetlesen Foundation
  38. World Wildlife Fund
  39. Laso ApS

向作者/读者索取更多资源

Climate change has broad ecological implications for species that rely on sensitive habitats. For some top predators, loss of habitat is expected to lead to cascading behavioral, nutritional, and reproductive changes that ultimately accelerate population declines. In the case of the polar bear (Ursus maritimus), declining Arctic sea ice reduces access to prey and lengthens seasonal fasting periods. We used a novel combination of physical capture, biopsy darting, and visual aerial observation data to project reproductive performance for polar bears by linking sea ice loss to changes in habitat use, body condition (i.e., fatness), and cub production. Satellite telemetry data from 43 (1991-1997) and 38 (2009-2015) adult female polar bears in the Baffin Bay subpopulation showed that bears now spend an additional 30 d on land (90 d in total) in the 2000s compared to the 1990s, a change closely correlated with changes in spring sea ice breakup and fall sea ice formation. Body condition declined for all sex, age, and reproductive classes and was positively correlated with sea ice availability in the current and previous year. Furthermore, cub litter size was positively correlated with maternal condition and spring breakup date (i.e., later breakup leading to larger litters), and negatively correlated with the duration of the ice-free period (i.e., longer ice-free periods leading to smaller litters). Based on these relationships, we projected reproductive performance three polar bear generations into the future (approximately 35 yr). Results indicate that two-cub litters, previously the norm, could largely disappear from Baffin Bay as sea ice loss continues. Our findings demonstrate how concurrent analysis of multiple data types collected over long periods from polar bears can provide a mechanistic understanding of the ecological implications of climate change. This information is needed for long-term conservation planning, which includes quantitative harvest risk assessments that incorporate estimated or assumed trends in future environmental carrying capacity.

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