期刊
ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS
卷 30, 期 4, 页码 -出版社
WILEY
DOI: 10.1002/eap.2071
关键词
Arctic; body condition; climate change; genetic mark-recapture; Greenland; Nunavut; polar bear; reproduction; sea ice
资金
- Air Greenland
- Applied Physics Laboratory (University of Washington)
- Avannaa Resources Inc. (Copenhagen)
- Bureau of Mineral and Petroleum (Nuuk)
- Canada Department of National Defense
- Environment and Climate Change Canada
- Environmental Protection Agency (Ministry of Environment and Food of Denmark) DANCEA Programme
- Government of Nunavut
- Greenland Department of Fisheries, Hunting and Agriculture
- Greenland Institute of Natural Resources (GINR)
- Greenland Pharmaceutical Authority
- Hospital in Upernavik -Peqqik
- Association of Greenland Hunters and Fishermen
- KNAPK
- Kullorsuaq School
- Mitteqarfik airport in Qaarsut
- Mitteqarfik airport in Upernavik
- Mittimatalik Hunters and Trappers Organization
- National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Development and Testing of Potential Indicators for the National Climate Assessment program grant [NNX13AN28G]
- NASA Climate and Biological Response grant [NNX11A063G]
- Namautaq Hunters and Trappers Organization
- Nativak Hunters and Trappers Organization
- Nuna Minerals Inc.
- Nunavut General Monitoring Program
- Nunavut Wildlife Management Board
- Parks Canada Agency
- Polar Continental Shelf Project
- Qaanaap Kommunia
- Qikiqtaaluk Corporation
- Quantum Murray LP
- Royal Canadian Mounted Police
- Thule Air Force Base
- Universal Helicopters
- University of Oslo
- Upernavik Seafood
- Uummannaq Sundhedscenter -Peqqik
- Vetlesen Foundation
- World Wildlife Fund
- Laso ApS
Climate change has broad ecological implications for species that rely on sensitive habitats. For some top predators, loss of habitat is expected to lead to cascading behavioral, nutritional, and reproductive changes that ultimately accelerate population declines. In the case of the polar bear (Ursus maritimus), declining Arctic sea ice reduces access to prey and lengthens seasonal fasting periods. We used a novel combination of physical capture, biopsy darting, and visual aerial observation data to project reproductive performance for polar bears by linking sea ice loss to changes in habitat use, body condition (i.e., fatness), and cub production. Satellite telemetry data from 43 (1991-1997) and 38 (2009-2015) adult female polar bears in the Baffin Bay subpopulation showed that bears now spend an additional 30 d on land (90 d in total) in the 2000s compared to the 1990s, a change closely correlated with changes in spring sea ice breakup and fall sea ice formation. Body condition declined for all sex, age, and reproductive classes and was positively correlated with sea ice availability in the current and previous year. Furthermore, cub litter size was positively correlated with maternal condition and spring breakup date (i.e., later breakup leading to larger litters), and negatively correlated with the duration of the ice-free period (i.e., longer ice-free periods leading to smaller litters). Based on these relationships, we projected reproductive performance three polar bear generations into the future (approximately 35 yr). Results indicate that two-cub litters, previously the norm, could largely disappear from Baffin Bay as sea ice loss continues. Our findings demonstrate how concurrent analysis of multiple data types collected over long periods from polar bears can provide a mechanistic understanding of the ecological implications of climate change. This information is needed for long-term conservation planning, which includes quantitative harvest risk assessments that incorporate estimated or assumed trends in future environmental carrying capacity.
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