Hybrid causal analysis combining a nonparametric multiplicative regression causality estimator with process connectivity information

Industrial processes are often subjected to abnormal events such as faults or external disturbances which can easily propagate via the process units. Establishing causal dependencies among process measurements has a key role in fault diagnosis due to its ability to identify the root cause of a fault and its propagation path. This paper proposes a hybrid nonlinear causal analysis based on nonparametric multiplicative regression (NPMR) for identifying the propagation of an oscillatory disturbance via control loops. The NPMR causality estimator addresses most of the limitations of the linear model-based methods and it can be applied to both bivariate and multivariate estimations without any modifications to the method parameters. Moreover, the NPMR-based estimations can be used to pinpoint the root cause of a fault. The process connectivity information is automatically integrated into the causal analysis using a specialized search algorithm. Thereby, it enables to efficiently tackle industrial systems with a high level of connectivity and enhance the quality of the results. The proposed approach is successfully demonstrated on an industrial board machine exhibiting oscillations in its drying section due to valve stiction and. The NPMR-based estimator produced highly accurate results with relatively low computational effort compared with the linear Granger causality and other nonlinear causality estimators.