Scarcity-weighted fossil fuel footprint of China at the provincial level

Supply risks and shortages of fossil fuels are major challenges to the sustainable development of countries. In response to this challenge, the 12th main goal of the Sustainable Development Goals emphasizes the importance of sustainable consumption and production patterns for resource (including fossil fuels) sustainability. However, for China, the world's largest energy consumer, the availability and criticality of fossil fuels to economic development have not been studied at sub-national scales. Understanding these can help fossil fuel management and the implementation of policies in different regions. This study is the first to analyse the scarcity-weighted fossil fuel footprint in China at the provincial level for 2012 using an environmentally extended multi-regional input-output model and a newly proposed scarcity evaluation indicator. Using scarcity-weighted indicators allows us to identify supply insecurities that are not revealed when focusing on fossil fuel extraction. The scarcity-weighted fossil fuel indicators identify new critical regions such as Hunan and Hubei. We also find that interprovincial export is a major driver of fossil fuel depletion in less-developed regions (e.g., 83% for Shanxi). This study can help regions in China identify fossil fuel supply risks from the viewpoint of their natural capital endowment and resource depletion in relation to final demand. More importantly, the research findings provide a valuable reference for policymakers when reassessing sustainability not only for fossil fuels but also for other natural resources at multiple scales within and beyond China.