期刊
WATER
卷 11, 期 10, 页码 -出版社
MDPI
DOI: 10.3390/w11102073
关键词
river flooding; extreme events; generalized extreme value distribution; non-stationarity; optimization under uncertainty
资金
- Basque Government through the BERC
- Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness MINECO through the BC3 Maria de Maeztu excellence accreditation [MDM-2017-0714]
- Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness [MINECO RTI2018-093352-B-I00]
- Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (MINECO) [RYC-2013-13628]
This paper reframes the socio-hydrology analysis as an optimization problem. To achieve this, we first develop a valuation scheme to estimate net benefits of development in a flood plain, consisting of benefits obtained from land and housing, less the costs of flood management and flood damage. Then we look for an optimal safety factor for the levee heightening strategy within the 'Technosociety' scenario for a given time series of future flood events. This is further extended to finding an optimal strategy in the case of uncertainty concerning flood timings and intensities. We suggest an approach for both stationary and non-stationary evolution of flood dynamics and examine how the levee heightening strategy is affected by the magnitude of climate change. We find that the preferred management option depends strongly on the value of the land services the area provides.
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