期刊
JOURNAL OF ADVANCES IN MODELING EARTH SYSTEMS
卷 11, 期 11, 页码 3728-3754出版社
AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
DOI: 10.1029/2019MS001628
关键词
aerosols; radiative forcing; ERF; perturbed parameter ensemble; emulators; uncertainty
资金
- Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) [NE/J024252/1, NE/P013406/1]
- European Union ACTRIS-2 project [262254]
- NERC [NE/I020059/1, NE/J022624/1]
- U.K.-China Research & Innovation Partnership Fund through the Met Office Climate Science for Service Partnership (CSSP) China as part of the Newton Fund
- Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme - BEIS
- Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme - Defra
- European Research Council (ERC) project RECAP under the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme [724602]
- Met Office CASE award
- ERC [FP7-280025]
- Royal Society Wolfson Merit Award
- Natural Environment Research Council
- CASE studentship
- Met Office Hadley Centre
- National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS), one of the U.K. Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) research centers via the ACSIS long-term science programme on the Atlantic climate system
- U.K. Space Agency
- NERC [NE/I020148/1, NE/R011222/1, NE/J022624/1, NE/J024252/1, NE/P013406/1, NE/I020059/1] Funding Source: UKRI
Tropospheric aerosol radiative forcing has persisted for many years as one of the major causes of uncertainty in global climate model simulations. To sample the range of plausible aerosol and atmospheric states and perform robust statistical analyses of the radiative forcing, it is important to account for the combined effects of many sources of model uncertainty, which is rarely done due to the high computational cost. This paper describes the designs of two ensembles of the Met Office Hadley Centre Global Environment Model-U.K. Chemistry and Aerosol global climate model and provides the first analyses of the uncertainties in aerosol radiative forcing and their causes. The first ensemble was designed to comprehensively sample uncertainty in the aerosol state, while the other samples additional uncertainties in the physical model related to clouds, humidity, and radiation, thereby allowing an analysis of uncertainty in the aerosol effective radiative forcing. Each ensemble consists of around 200 simulations of the preindustrial and present-day atmospheres. The uncertainty in aerosol radiative forcing in our ensembles is comparable to the range of estimates from multimodel intercomparison projects. The mean aerosol effective radiative forcing is -1.45 W/m(2) (credible interval of -2.07 to -0.81 W/m(2)), which encompasses but is more negative than the -1.17 W/m(2) in the 2013 Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project and -0.90 W/m(2) in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. The ensembles can be used to reduce aerosol radiative forcing uncertainty by challenging them with multiple measurements as well as to isolate potential causes of multimodel differences.
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