期刊
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH
卷 16, 期 22, 页码 -出版社
MDPI
DOI: 10.3390/ijerph16224552
关键词
climate change; agriculture vulnerability; spatially heterogeneous; adaptation decision; coastal Bangladesh
资金
- National Key Research and Development Program of China [2017YFC0506603]
- Bureau of International Co-operation Chinese Academy of Sciences [132C35KYSB20150005]
- National Natural Science Foundation of China [41661144032]
- Chinese Academy of Sciences-The World Academy of Sciences (CAS-TWAS) President's Fellowship Program for international Ph.D. students at University of Chinese Academy of Sciences (UCAS), China
The adverse impacts of climate change exert mounting pressure on agriculture-dependent livelihoods of many developing and developed nations. However, integrated and spatially specific vulnerability assessments in less-developed countries like Bangladesh are rare, and insufficient to support the decision-making needed for climate-change resilience. Here, we develop an agricultural livelihood vulnerability index (ALVI) and an integrated approach, allowing for (i) mapping out the hot spots of vulnerability distribution; (ii) identifying key factors of spatially heterogeneous vulnerability; and (iii) supporting intervention planning for adaptation. This study conceptualized vulnerability as a function of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity by developing a composite index from a reliable dataset of 64 indicators comprising biophysical, agro-ecological, and socioeconomic variables. The empirical studies of coastal Bangladesh revealed that Bhola, Patuakhali, and Lakshmipur districts, around the mouth of the deltaic Meghna estuaries, are the hot spot of vulnerability distribution. Furthermore, the spatially heterogeneous vulnerability was triggered by spatial variation of erosion, cyclones, drought, rain-fed agriculture, land degradation, soil phosphorus, crop productivity, sanitation and housing condition, infant mortality, emergency shelters, adoption of agro-technology. The integrated approach could be useful for monitoring and evaluating the effectiveness of adaptation intervention by substituting various hypothetical scenarios into the ALVI framework for baseline comparison.
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