Improvement in VO2peak predicts readmissions for cardiovascular disease and mortality in patients undergoing cardiac rehabilitation

Background: Improvement in exercise capacity is a main goal of cardiac rehabilitation but the effects are often lost at long-term follow-up and thus also the benefits on prognosis. We assessed whether improvement in VO2peak during a cardiac rehabilitation programme predicts long-term prognosis. Methods and results: We performed a retrospective analysis of 1561 cardiac patients completing cardiac rehabilitation in 2011-2017 in Copenhagen. Mean age was 63.6 (11) years, 74% were male and 84% had coronary artery disease, 6% chronic heart failure and 10% heart valve replacement. The association between baseline VO2peak and improvement after cardiac rehabilitation and being readmitted for cardiovascular disease and/or all-cause mortality was assessed with three different analyses: Cox regression for the combined outcome, for all-cause mortality and a multi-state model. During a median follow-up of 2.3 years, 167 readmissions for cardiovascular disease and 77 deaths occurred. In adjusted Cox regression there was a non-linear decreasing risk of the combined outcome with higher baseline VO2peak and with improvement of VO2peak after cardiac rehabilitation. A similar linear association was seen for all-cause mortality. Applying the multi-state model, baseline VO2peak and change in VO2peak were associated with risk of a cardiovascular disease readmission and with all-cause mortality but not with mortality in those having an intermediate readmission for cardiovascular disease. Conclusion: VO2peak as well as change in VO2peak were highly predictive of future risk of readmissions for cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality. The predictive value did not extend beyond the next admission for a cardiovascular event.