4.3 Article

Climate-dependent malaria disease transmission model and its analysis

期刊

出版社

WORLD SCIENTIFIC PUBL CO PTE LTD
DOI: 10.1142/S1793524519500876

关键词

Climate-dependent malaria model; asymptotic stability; periodic and non-periodic climate-dependent growth rates; validation using epidemiological data

资金

  1. Department of Mathematics at Addis Ababa University
  2. International Science Program (ISP)
  3. DST/NRF Centre of Excellence in Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis (SACEMA) at Stellenbosch University, South Africa
  4. DST/NRF SARChI Chair in Mathematical Models and Methods in Biosciences and Bioengineering at the University of Pretoria

向作者/读者索取更多资源

Malaria infection continues to be a major problem in many parts of the world including Africa. Environmental variables are known to significantly affect the population dynamics and abundance of insects, major catalysts of vector-borne diseases, but the exact extent and consequences of this sensitivity are not yet well established. To assess the impact of the variability in temperature and rainfall on the transmission dynamics of malaria in a population, we propose a model consisting of a system of non-autonomous deterministic equations that incorporate the effect of both temperature and rainfall to the dispersion and mortality rate of adult mosquitoes. The model has been validated using epidemiological data collected from the western region of Ethiopia by considering the trends for the cases of malaria and the climate variation in the region. Further, a mathematical analysis is performed to assess the impact of temperature and rainfall change on the transmission dynamics of the model. The periodic variation of seasonal variables as well as the non-periodic variation due to the long-term climate variation have been incorporated and analyzed. In both periodic and non-periodic cases, it has been shown that the disease-free solution of the model is globally asymptotically stable when the basic reproduction ratio is less than unity in the periodic system and when the threshold function is less than unity in the non-periodic system. The disease is uniformly persistent when the basic reproduction ratio is greater than unity in the periodic system and when the threshold function is greater than unity in the non-periodic system.

作者

我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。

评论

主要评分

4.3
评分不足

次要评分

新颖性
-
重要性
-
科学严谨性
-
评价这篇论文

推荐

暂无数据
暂无数据