Spatio-temporal changes in ecosystem service value in response to land-use/cover changes in the Pearl River Delta

Urban development and human activities threaten ecosystem structures and ecological processes. Since 1995, the gross domestic product (GDP) of the Pearl River Delta (PRD) has increased by more than thirteen fold. However, our understanding of how the ecosystem service value (ESV) has responded to land-use/cover changes (LUCC) in the PRD remains limited. In this paper, we use a multi-source data approach to assess the patterns of ESV in the PRD from 1995 to 2015. The hot/cool-spot mapping method is used to analyse the spatial differences in ESV at a 1 km scale. The results revealed the following: (a) the proportion of increase in built-up land area is 6.3% in the PRD; this change occurred mainly through the occupation of farmland and forest land. (b) The area of hot spots increased from 37% in 1995 to 41% in 2015, while the area of cool spots increased from 34.6% to 36.3%. The ESV hot spots are mainly distributed in Zhaoqing and Huizhou. (c) The ESV has changed due to a combination of natural and anthropogenic factors in the PRD. Furthermore, corresponding management measures are identified according to the results of the exploratory spatial data analysis. The findings of this study have practical significance for establishing mathematical models to reveal the patterns of ESV in urban agglomerations.