期刊
QUATERNARY SCIENCE REVIEWS
卷 224, 期 -, 页码 -出版社
PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.quascirev.2019.105971
关键词
Holocene; Paleoclimatology; North America; Tree-rings; Streamflow; Upper Missouri River; Reconstruction
资金
- National Science Foundation (NSF) Paleo Perspectives on Climate Change (P2C2) Program [1404188, 1403957, 1401549]
- NSF Graduate Research Fellowship Program (GRFP) [1049562]
- Graduate Research Internship Program (GRIP)
- U.S. Bureau of Reclamation WaterSMART Program (Sustain and Manage America's Resources for Tomorrow)
- state of Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation
- U.S. Geological Survey Land Resources Mission Area
- North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center
- Directorate For Geosciences
- Div Atmospheric & Geospace Sciences [1404188, 1401549] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
- Div Atmospheric & Geospace Sciences
- Directorate For Geosciences [1403957] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
- Division Of Graduate Education
- Direct For Education and Human Resources [1049562] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
Paleohydrologic records can provide unique, long-term perspectives on streamflow variability and hydroclimate for use in water resource planning. Such long-term records can also play a key role in placing both present day events and projected future conditions into a broader context than that offered by instrumental observations. However, relative to other major river basins across the western United States, a paucity of streamflow reconstructions has to date prevented the full application of such paleohydrologic information in the Upper Missouri River Basin. Here we utilize a set of naturalized streamflow records for the Upper Missouri and an expanded network of tree-ring records to reconstruct streamflow at thirty-one gaging locations across the major headwaters of the basin. The reconstructions explain an average of 68% of the variability in the observed streamflow records and extend available records of streamflow back to 886 CE on average. Basin-wide analyses suggest unprecedented hydroclimatic variability over the region during the Medieval period, similar to that observed in the Upper Colorado River Basin, and show considerable synchrony of persistent wet-dry phasing with the Colorado River over the last 1200 years. Streamflow estimates in individual sub-basins of the Upper Missouri demonstrate increased spatial variability in discharge during the Little Ice Age (similar to 1400-1850 CE) compared with the Medieval Climate Anomaly (similar to 800-1400 CE). The network of streamflow reconstructions presented here fills a major geographical void in paleohydrologic understanding and now allows for a long-term assessment of hydrological variability over the majority of the western U.S. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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