期刊
QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY
卷 146, 期 727, 页码 762-779出版社
WILEY
DOI: 10.1002/qj.3707
关键词
Arctic; Barents Sea; Eady growth rate; extratropical cyclones; Scandinavian pattern; sea ice decline; storm tracks; Svalbard
资金
- Academy of Finland [317999]
- Academy of Finland (AKA) [317999, 317999] Funding Source: Academy of Finland (AKA)
We report an increase in winter (DJF) cyclone densities in the areas around Svalbard and in northwestern Barents Sea and a decrease in cyclone densities in southeastern Barents Sea during 1979-2016. Despite high interannual variability, the trends are significant at the 90% confidence level. The changes appear as a result of a shift into a more meridional winter storm track in the high-latitude North Atlantic, associated with a positive trend in the Scandinavian Pattern. A significant decrease in the Brunt-Vaisala frequency east of Svalbard and a significant increase in the Eady Growth Rate north of Svalbard indicate increased baroclinicity, favouring enhanced cyclone activity in these regions. For the first time, we apply composite analysis to explicitly address regional consequences of these wintertime changes in the high-latitude North Atlantic. We find a tendency toward a warmer and more moist atmospheric state in the Barents Sea and over Svalbard with increased cyclone activity around Svalbard.
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