Early adulthood weight, subsequent midlife weight change and risk of cardiovascular disease mortality: an analysis of Norwegian cardiovascular surveys

Background The time between early adulthood and midlife is important for obesity development. There is paucity of studies using objectively measured body mass index (BMI) at both time points with full range of midlife cardiovascular risk factors. We aimed to investigate the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality associated with different levels of objectively measured change in body weight from early adulthood to midlife, and to assess whether risk is primarily explained by midlife cardiovascular risk factors. Methods Pooled data from Norwegian health surveys (1985-2003), Tuberculosis screenings, Conscript data and the Norwegian Educational database were linked to the Cause of Death Registry. Health survey participants with data on objectively measured weight and height in both early adulthood (18-20 years) and midlife (40-50 years) were included, n = 148,021. Cox regression models were used to assess associations between weight change and CVD mortality. Results Total analysis time included 2,841,174 person years. Mean follow-up was 19 (standard deviation 4) years. Participants being normal weight in early adulthood and obese in midlife had a hazard ratio (HR) of CVD mortality of 2.09 (95% CI 1.74-2.50) relative to those who were normal weight at both times. The corresponding HR of those being obese at both times was 5.15 (3.61-7.36). Adjustment for CVD risk factors attenuated these associations. Gaining >= 15 kg between early adulthood and midlife was associated with higher CVD mortality after adjustment for early adulthood weight (HR 1.51 (1.20-1.89)), and for smoking and education (HR 1.63 (1.30-2.04)), however not after adjustment for mediating CVD risk factors. Conclusions Obesity both in early adulthood and in midlife was associated with CVD mortality. Weight gain of >= 15 kg from early adulthood to midlife was also associated with CVD mortality, but not after adjustment for mediating CVD risk factors.