Exploring socio-hydrological determinants of crop yield in under-performing irrigation schemes: pathways for sustainable intensification

Understanding the human-water-food-climate nexus is central to achieving sustainable intensification (SI) in agriculture. This research uses a socio-hydrological approach to understand the underpinning for implementing SI in the Gezira Irrigation Scheme, Sudan, by integrating vegetation indices derived from remote sensing, ancillary, gridded soil and precipitation data, supplemented by interviews with 393 farmers. The productivity gap was estimated as the difference between the potential and actual productivities. Based upon data on farmers' socio-economic status and field practices, a regression tree model was built to determine the factors that control the sorghum yield. The model revealed that the financial status of farmers and access to water are the most influential factors on sorghum yield. A conceptual framework that elucidates SI and its bi-directional feedback to the environment, society and the economy is proposed. Implementing SI in the scheme has implications on water and food security in Sudan and beyond its borders.