期刊
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
卷 47, 期 7, 页码 -出版社
AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
DOI: 10.1029/2019GL083906
关键词
El Nino-Southern Oscillation; coral paleoclimate; anthropogenic climate change; Holocene climate change
资金
- National Science Foundation [1502832, 1446343, 1029020, 1349599]
- National Science Foundation of China [41888101]
- U.S. Geological Survey and National Science Foundation [1535007]
- Sigma Delta Epsilon-Graduate Women in Science fellowship
- NOAA's Climate Program Office and DOE's Office of Science
The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) represents the largest source of year-to-year global climate variability. While Earth system models suggest a range of possible shifts in ENSO properties under continued greenhouse gas forcing, many centuries of preindustrial climate data are required to detect a potential shift in the properties of recent ENSO extremes. Here we reconstruct the strength of ENSO variations over the last 7,000 years with a new ensemble of fossil coral oxygen isotope records from the Line Islands, located in the central equatorial Pacific. The corals document a significant decrease in ENSO variance of similar to 20% from 3,000 to 5,000 years ago, coinciding with changes in spring/fall precessional insolation. We find that ENSO variability over the last five decades is similar to 25% stronger than during the preindustrial. Our results provide empirical support for recent climate model projections showing an intensification of ENSO extremes under greenhouse forcing. Plain Language Summary Recent modeling studies suggest that El Nino will intensify due to greenhouse warming. Here new coral reconstructions of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) record sustained, significant changes in ENSO variability over the last 7,000 years and imply that ENSO extremes of the last 50 years are significantly stronger than those of the preindustrial era in the central tropical Pacific. These records suggest that El Nino events already may be intensifying due to anthropogenic climate change.
作者
我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。
推荐
暂无数据