Spatial distribution of usable biomass feedstock and technical bioenergy potential in China

Bioenergy will play an intimate and critical role in energy supply and carbon mitigation in the future. In recent years, customizing the development of bioenergy to local conditions and prioritizing distributed utilization have been the two key principles that have been released by the Chinese government to promote the national- and provincial-level development of bioenergy. While many recognize the importance of bioenergy in achieving low-carbon transition, little is known about the high-resolution distribution of usable biomass feedstock and technical bioenergy potential in China, which brings about uncertainties and additional challenges for creating localized utilization plans. We propose a new assessment framework that integrates crop growth models, a land suitability assessment, and the geographic information systems to address these knowledge gaps. Distributions of 11 types of usable biomass feedstock and three kinds of technical bioenergy potential are mapped out through specific transformation technologies at 1 km resolution. At the national level, the final technical biogas potential is 1.91 EJ. The technical bioethanol potential (0.04-0.96 EJ) from the energy crop can supply 0.13-3.12 times the bioethanol demand for the consumption of E10 gasoline in 2015. The technical heat potential (1.06 EJ) can meet 20% of the demand for heating in all provinces (5.38 EJ). Most of the 2020 bioenergy goals can be achieved, excluding that for bioethanol, which will need to require more cellulosic ethanol from residues. At the provincial level, Henan and Inner Mongolia have the potential to develop clean heating alternatives via the substitution of agroforestry residues for coal. The results can provide a systematic analysis of the distribution of biomass feedstocks and technical bioenergy potential in China. With economic factors taken into consideration in further research, it can also support national and provincial governments in making bioenergy development plans in an effective and timely manner.