Sustainable development pathway for intercity passenger transport: A case study of China

The transportation sector is responsible for a major share of energy-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions worldwide. There is already great concern about the fast-growing energy demand and carbon emissions from China's transportation sector. This study focuses on intercity passenger transport and aims to simulate its future energy demand and carbon emissions pathway by optimizing its technology portfolio based on a developed C(3)IAM/NET-Transport model. The energy-saving and carbon emission-reduction potential of countermeasures, such as optimizing the transportation structure, improving energy efficiency and promoting alternative fuels were investigated thoroughly and a sustainable development pathway for vehicle technologies and fuels in China's intercity passenger transport was identified. The model results show that by taking joint countermeasures, intercity passenger transport could save 2515.5 Mtce energy consumption and lead to a cumulative reduction of 8447.4 MtCO(2) between 2015 and 2050. China's intercity passenger transport would peak at the total CO2 emissions of 448.7 MtCO(2) in 2030.