Moderate chilling requirement controls budburst for subtropical species in China

It is well known that spring phenology has advanced in temperate regions over the last few decades in response to climate change. However, we understand much less about climate-driven changes in phenology within subtropical and tropical regions, where the timing of events is less predictable and has not been well-studied. It is not known whether subtropical plants have a similar winter chilling requirement to what has been well-documented in temperate species. To explore this possibility, we established a climate chamber experiment to test the effects of photoperiod and chilling on the timing of budburst within 37 subtropical woody species. We found that both moderate and strong chilling treatments advanced budburst and reduced forcing requirements, relative to plants subjected to a low chilling treatment. Longer photoperiod enhanced budburst rate for only two species, suggesting that chilling is more important for regulating budburst for most species. With respect to future climate change, the spring phenology of subtropical species is expected to be delayed further because species could lack the ability to meet their fundamental chilling requirement. These results have important implications for the conservation and management of tropical and subtropical plant populations under future climate change scenarios.