Decadal Changes in Interannual Dependence of the Bay of Bengal Summer Monsoon Onset on ENSO Modulated by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation

Interannual variations of the Bay of Bengal summer monsoon (BOBSM) onset in association with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are reexamined using NCEP1, JRA-55 and ERA20C atmospheric and Hadley sea surface temperature (SST) reanalysis datasets over the period 1900-2017. Decadal changes exist in the dependence of the BOBSM onset on ENSO, varying with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). A higher correlation between the BOBSM onset and ENSO arises during the warm PDO epochs, with distinct late (early) onsets following El Nino (La Nina) events. In contrast, less significant correlations occur during the cold PDO epochs. The mechanism for the PDO modulating the ENSO-BOBSM onset relationship is through the variations in SST anomaly (SSTA) patterns. During the warm PDO epochs, the superimpositions of the PDO-related and ENSO-related SSTAs lead to the SSTA distribution of an El Nino (La Nina) event exhibiting significant positive (negative) SSTAs over the tropical central-eastern Pacific and Indian Ocean along with negative (positive) SSTAs, especially over the tropical western Pacific (TWP), forming a strong zonal interoceanic SSTA gradient between the TWP and tropical Indian Ocean. Significant anomalous lower tropospheric easterlies (westerlies) together with upper-tropospheric westerlies (easterlies) are thus induced over the BOB, favoring an abnormally late (early) BOBSM onset. During the cold PDO epochs, however, the superimpositions of PDO-related SSTAs with El Nino-related (La Nina-related) SSTAs lead to insignificant SSTAs over the TWP and a weak zonal SSTA gradient, without distinct circulation anomalies over the BOB favoring early or late BOBSM onsets.