期刊
JOURNAL OF PARKINSONS DISEASE
卷 9, 期 4, 页码 665-679出版社
IOS PRESS
DOI: 10.3233/JPD-181518
关键词
Parkinson's disease; biomarkers; disease progression; surrogate endpoint
资金
- Michael J Fox Foundation
- Voyager Therapeutics
- Biogen
- National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke
- Michael J. Fox Foundation
- NINDS
- MJFF
- NPF
- TEVA Pharmaceuticals
- Auspex
- Biotie
- Civitas
- Acorda
- Lundbeck
- Neuroderm
- National Institutes of Health
- Northwestern Foundation
- GE Medical
- TEVA
- NIH/NINDS [U01 NS077352, U01 NS077108, U01 HL091843, U01 NS038529, U01 NS079163, U01 NS082329, U01 NS084495]
- National Institutes of Health (NIH)
- Eli Lilly
- TEVA-Pharma
- Desitin
- Boehringer Ingelheim
- GE Healthcare
- BMBF
- EU
- Parkinson Fonds Deutschland
- Deutsche Parkinson Vereinigung
- Stifterverband fur die deutsche Wissenschaft
- Parkinson's Disease Foundation
- Department of Defense
- National Institutes of Health (NEI)
- National Institutes of Health (NINDS)
- National Institutes of Health (NIA)
- National Institutes of Health (NICHD)
- DOD [W81XWH-06-1-0678]
- Parkinson Progression Marker Initiative (PPMI), Michael J. Fox Foundation
- Esai
- Michael J. Fox Foundation for Parkinson's Research
Background: Improved prediction of Parkinson's disease (PD) progression is needed to support clinical decision-making and to accelerate research trials. Objectives: To examine whether baseline measures and their 1-year change predict longer-term progression in early PD. Methods: Parkinson's Progression Markers Initiative study data were used. Participants had disease duration <= 2 years, abnormal dopamine transporter (DAT) imaging, and were untreated with PD medications. Baseline and 1-year change in clinical, cerebrospinal fluid (CSF), and imaging measures were evaluated as candidate predictors of longer-term (up to 5 years) change in Movement Disorders Society-Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale (MDS-UPDRS) score and DAT specific binding ratios (SBR) using linear mixed-effects models. Results: Among 413 PD participants, median follow-up was 5 years. Change in MDS-UPDRS from year-2 to last follow-up was associated with disease duration (beta = 0.351; 95%CI = 0.146, 0.555), male gender (beta = 3.090; 95%CI = 0.310, 5.869), and baseline (beta = -0.199; 95%CI = -0.315, -0.082) and 1-year change (beta = 0.540; 95%CI = 0.423, 0.658) in MDS-UPDRS; predictors in the model accounted for 17.6% of the variance in outcome. Predictors of percent change in mean SBR from year-2 to last follow-up included baseline rapid eye movement sleep behavior disorder score (beta = -0.6229; 95%CI = -1.2910, 0.0452), baseline (beta = 7.232; 95%CI = 2.268, 12.195) and 1-year change (beta = 45.918; 95%CI = 35.994,55.843) in mean striatum SBR, and 1-year change in autonomic symptom score (beta = -0.325;95%CI = -0.695, 0.045); predictors in the model accounted for 44.1% of the variance. Conclusions: Baseline clinical, CSF, and imaging measures in early PD predicted change in MDS-UPDRS and dopamine-transporter binding, but the predictive value of the models was low. Adding the short-term change of possible predictors improved the predictive value, especially for modeling change in dopamine-transporter binding.
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