The impact of climate variability and change on the energy system: A systematic scoping review

The energy systemis a vital infrastructure which can be vulnerable to climate variability and change (CV&C) impacts. Understanding the impacts can prevent disruption and inform policy decision making. This study applied a scoping reviewin a systematic manner following the Joanna Briggs Institute guidelines to identify consistent patterns of CV&C impacts on the energy system, map and locate research gaps in the literature. A total of 176 studies were identified as eligible for inclusion in the review. This study found evidence of consistent increase in energy demand for Africa, the Americas and Asian continent. Consistent decrease was found in Northern and Eastern Europe, while increase in residential demand was projected in Oceania. There was evidence of consistent decrease in thermal power plant output globally. Solar photovoltaic showed a robust consistent pattern of increase in the Caribbean and Central America, Northern and Southern Africa and Oceania. As the global climate is changing in a future that is highly uncertain, the energy system should also evolve in order to adapt to the changing climate. Future impact assessment must integrate the impact of CV&C on power demand and supply while consider socioeconomic dynamics, cross-sectoral linkages and back-loops in a complete energy system model. (C) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.