Influence of changes in rainfall and soil moisture on trends in flooding

Despite the expectation that increases in rainfall with climatic change will result in increases in pluvial flooding, there is more historical evidence for decreases in flood magnitude. In Australia, as in many other parts of the world, flood magnitudes are mostly decreasing, despite increasing rainfall extremes. Here, we show how changes in soil moisture have led to decreasing flood magnitudes while rainfall extremes have been increasing. Using gauged streamflow, catchment average rainfall, and modelled soil moisture data across Australia we confirm that streamflow peaks (or floods) that occur at least once a year are strongly related to both the peak rainfall causing the flood and the antecedent soil moisture conditions preceding the storm event. Regions where the magnitude of the peak flow has decreased are visually and statistically correlated to regions of decreasing soil moisture. Flood magnitudes are more likely to increase only for the rarest events, with increases in rainfall offset by decreases in soil moisture for more frequent events. A recurrence interval dependent tipping point is identified beyond which trends in catchment rainfall outweigh those of soil moisture trends and dominate the flood response. For regions where soil moisture has decreased, this tipping point occurs at an average recurrence interval of ten years or more. As most studies investigating trends in flooding generally use annual maxima, changes in soil moisture are likely to be the dominant mechanism behind observed flood trends. Hence changes in soil moisture conditions need to be considered when predicting catchment flood response due to climatic change.