Rebound effects in agricultural land and soil management: Review and analytical framework

Increasing the efficiency of production is the basis for decoupling economic growth from resource consumption. In agriculture, more efficient use of natural resources is at the heart of sustainable intensification. However, technical improvements do not directly translate into resource savings because producers and consumers adapt their behaviour to such improvements, often resulting in a rebound effect, where part or all of the potential resource savings are offset. In extreme cases, increases in efficiency may even result in higher, instead of lower, resource consumption (the Jevons paradox). Rebound effects are particularly complex in agricultural land and soil management, where multiple resources are used simultaneously and efficiency gains aim to lower the need for farmland, water, energy, nutrients, pesticides, and greenhouse gas emissions. In this context, quantification of rebound effects is a prerequisite for generating realistic scenarios of global food provision and for advancing the debate on land sparing versus land sharing. However, studies that provide an overview of rebound effects related to the resources used in agriculture or guidelines for assessing potential rebound effects from future innovations are lacking. This paper contributes to closing this gap by reviewing the current state of knowledge and developing a framework for a structured appraisal of rebound effects. As a test case, the proposed framework is applied to emerging technologies and practices in agricultural soil management in Germany. The literature review revealed substantial evidence of rebound effects or even Jevons' paradox with regard to efficiency increases in land productivity and irrigation water use. By contrast, there were few studies addressing rebound effects from efficiency increases in fertilizer use, pesticide application, agricultural energy use, and greenhouse gas emissions. While rebound effects are by definition caused by behavioural adaptations of humans, in agriculture also natural adaptations occur, such as resistance of pests to certain pesticides. Future studies should consider extending the definition of rebound effects to such natural adaptations. The test case revealed the potential for direct and indirect economic rebound effects of a number of emerging technologies and practices, such as improved irrigation technologies, which increase water productivity and may thereby contribute to increases in irrigated areas and total water use. The results of this study indicated that rebound effects must be assessed to achieve realistic estimates of resource savings from efficiency improvements and to enable informed policy choices. The framework developed in this paper is the first to facilitate such assessments. (C) 2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.