High risk of the fall armyworm invading Japan and the Korean Peninsula via overseas migration

The fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda (J.E. Smith), is an invasive pest species in the Old World. This species is originally native to the Americas. Since 2016, S. frugiperda has spread widely and rapidly throughout Africa, the Middle East, India, Southeast Asia and, most recently, to southern China. By May 2019, S. frugiperda had appeared in 13 provinces in southern China and will spread further into northern China. It is highly likely that S. frugiperda will enter Japan and Korea via overseas migrations as have many other migratory pests. To evaluate the risk of S. frugiperda invasion in Japan and the Korean Peninsula, we modelled the rate of expansion and future potential migratory range of the insect by a trajectory analytical approach using the flight behaviour of S. frugiperda and meteorological data of the past five years (2014-2018). If S. frugiperda can fly for up to 36 continuous hours over water, then our results predict migration from southern and eastern China into Japan and Korea. Most likely, Japan would be invaded from Fujian and Zhejiang in 1 June-15 July, and Kyushu, Shikoku and southwestern Honshu could face the highest risk of S. frugiperda invasion. Korea would most likely be reached by S. frugiperda from northern Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Anhui and Shandong in 1 June-15 July and later. Our results indicated a very high risk that S. frugiperda would annually invade Japan and the Korean Peninsula and cause a possible significant decrease in agricultural productivity.