A method for natural gas forecasting and preliminary allocation based on unique standard natural gas consumption profiles

The paper reports on the development of unique standard gas consumption profiles for the end gas consumers and the preparation of a method for the implementation of the developed profiles for forecasting and preliminary gas allocation. Four years of gas consumption and temperature measurements were used to develop eight types of consumption profiles for 17 gas consumer groups, which were grouped according to their professional activity. As an alternative to the exponential, Gompertz or logistic model functions, frequently used in gas consumption model developments, the sigmoid model function is implemented and model constants for the eight types of profiles are developed based on the knowledge of the temperature independent portion of the gas consumption and separate treatment of workdays/weekends. Based on these profiles, a method was developed for the preliminary allocation of the gas consumption. The developed profiles and the gas consumption allocation method were validated on the available set of gas consumption data for the Slovenian gas market, proving the sigmoid model function based gas consumption allocation as an accurate and viable means of gas consumption forecasting. (C) 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.