期刊
DIABETES RESEARCH AND CLINICAL PRACTICE
卷 157, 期 -, 页码 -出版社
ELSEVIER IRELAND LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.diabres.2019.107843
关键词
Diabetes; Prevalence; Projections; Undiagnosed; Impaired glucose tolerance; International Diabetes Federation
资金
- Pfizer-MSD Alliance
- Lilly Diabetes
- Novo Nordisk
Aims: To provide global estimates of diabetes prevalence for 2019 and projections for 2030 and 2045. Methods: A total of 255 high-quality data sources, published between 1990 and 2018 and representing 138 countries were identified. For countries without high quality in-country data, estimates were extrapolated from similar countries matched by economy, ethnicity, geography and language. Logistic regression was used to generate smoothed age-specific diabetes prevalence estimates (including previously undiagnosed diabetes) in adults aged 20-79 years. Results: The global diabetes prevalence in 2019 is estimated to be 9.3% (463 million people), rising to 10.2% (578 million) by 2030 and 10.9% (700 million) by 2045. The prevalence is higher in urban (10.8%) than rural (7.2%) areas, and in high-income (10.4%) than low-income countries (4.0%). One in two (50.1%) people living with diabetes do not know that they have diabetes. The global prevalence of impaired glucose tolerance is estimated to be 7.5% (374 million) in 2019 and projected to reach 8.0% (454 million) by 2030 and 8.6% (548 million) by 2045. Conclusions: Just under half a billion people are living with diabetes worldwide and the number is projected to increase by 25% in 2030 and 51% in 2045. (C) 2019 Published by Elsevier B.V.
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