China's black carbon emission from fossil fuel consumption in 2015, 2020, and 2030

Black carbon (BC) emissions in China have been changing significantly due to rapid evolution of fuel consumption. In this study, BC emissions from fossil fuel consumption in different sectors were estimated in 2015 based on up-to-date activity data and emission factors (EFs). While for the future scenarios in 2020 and 2030, it was estimated according to relative changes in the activity level and EFs. In 2015, total BC emissions were estimated to be 1.48 Tg, mostly from the industrial, residential, and transportation sectors. Emission fluxes were found to have remarkable spatial features, where high fluxes generally located in eastern China. About 25% of the terrestrial area of China showed an annual flux above 0.2 t km(-2). Total BC emissions will be decreased to 1.33 (2020) and 1.16 Tg (2030). Most reduction will occur in the industrial and residential sectors, while the transportation sector will see an obvious increase. The dramatic reduction of BC emissions in future is a new indication to our current understanding of the emission and its effects as well, and it may provide guidance for future scientific research and policy making in the field of climate change and air quality control.