Spatial Pattern Analysis and Prediction of Gully Erosion Using Novel Hybrid Model of Entropy-Weight of Evidence

Gully erosion is an environmental problem in arid and semi-arid areas. Gullies threaten the soil and water resources and cause off- and on-site problems. In this research, a new hybrid model combines the index-of-entropy (IoE) model with the weight-of-evidence (WoE) model. Remote sensing and GIS techniques are used to map gully-erosion susceptibility in the watershed of the Bastam district of Semnan Province in northern Iran. The performance of the hybrid model is assessed by comparing the results with from models that use only IoE or WoE. Three hundred and three gullies were mapped in the study area and were randomly classified into two groups for training (70% or 212 gullies) and validation (30% or 91 gullies). Eighteen topographical, hydrological, geological, and environmental conditioning factors were considered in the modeling process. Prediction-rate curves (PRCs) and success-rate curves (SRCs) were used for validation. Results from the IoE model indicate that drainage density, slope, and rainfall factors are the most important factors promoting gullying in the study area. Validation results indicate that the ensemble model performed better than either the IoE or WoE models. The hybrid model predicted that 38.02 percent of the study area has either high or very high susceptible to gullying. Given the high accuracy of the novel hybrid model, this scientific methodology may be very useful for land use management decisions and for land use planning in gully-prone regions. Our research contributes to achieve Land Degradation Neutrality as will help to design remediation programs to control non-sustainable soil erosion rates.