Factors influencing the progress in decoupling economic growth from carbon dioxide emissions in China's manufacturing industry

Manufacturing industry occupies an important position in China's national economy, and its decoupling from carbon dioxide emissions largely determines the realization of China's transition to a green economy. This paper uses the Tapio decoupling indicator to explore the decoupling status between manufacturing value added and carbon dioxide emissions in China from 1995 to 2015. Then, the improved production-theoretical decomposition analysis-index decomposition analysis (PDA-IDA) method is proposed to analyze the factors influencing changes in decoupling status, with the technology heterogeneity of manufacturing sub-sectors considered. The results show that China's manufacturing industry experiences a decoupling development trend from 1995 to 2015. The potential energy intensity is the dominant factor in promoting the decoupling development of manufacturing industry, while the output scale effect is the main inhibitory factor. In addition, industrial restructuring and adjustment in carbon density are far from achieving the expected emission reduction effects, while the effects of technological progress and technical efficiency on the decoupling are relatively small.