期刊
OXFORD BULLETIN OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS
卷 81, 期 6, 页码 1376-1400出版社
WILEY
DOI: 10.1111/obes.12311
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This paper studies the empirically relevant problem of estimation and inference in diffusion index forecasting models with structural instability. Factor model and factor augmented regression both experience a structural change with different unknown break dates. In the factor model, we estimate factors and loadings by principal components. We consider least squares estimation of the factor augmented regression and propose a break test. The empirical application uncovers instabilities in the linkages between bond risk premia and macroeconomic factors.
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