Predicting Mortality and Life Expectancy in Patients Under Prolonged Mechanical Ventilation and Maintenance Dialysis

Background: The number of patients receiving prolonged mechanical ventilation (PMV) or maintenance dialysis (MD) is increasing worldwide. Identification of those with a short life expectancy is useful for early referral of palliative care. Objective: To determine the survival rate, life expectancy, and major prognostic factors in patients under both PMV and MD. Design: We extracted a 1:3.4 random sample of patients treated with mechanical ventilation (MV) from the National Health Insurance (NHI) Research Database of Taiwan from 2003 to 2007. Subjects who had undergone MD and received MV for longer than 21 days were enrolled. Setting/Subjects: There were 1035 patients who received both PMV and MD. Measurements: The survival rates and life expectancy were estimated. A multivariate proportional hazards model was constructed to validate the effects of different prognostic factors, including age, gender, hospital size, and major comorbidities. Results: The median length of survival of patients under both PMV and MD was 54 days. The three-month, six-month, and one-year survival rates were 40.8%, 24.1%, and 12.6%, respectively. The life expectancies of those older than 70 years were five months; those comorbid with cancer and septicemia were 112 and 90 days, respectively. After adjustments for covariates, we found following prognostic factors were statistically significant: gangrene, peritonitis, liver cirrhosis, cancer, septicemia, hydrocephalus, having device complications, and shock. Conclusions: More than 85% of patients receiving both PMV and MD died within one year. Communication and early referral for palliative care would be indicated for those comorbid with significant prognostic factors.