A Stochastic Range Estimation Algorithm for Electric Vehicles Using Traffic Phase Classification

Limited range and charging infrastructure leads to range anxiety of electric vehicle drivers. Current range estimation algorithms are deemed unreliable and large safety margins are reserved to prevent the risk of stranding. Range estimation in general depends on two factors: current battery energy content and the energy consumption forecast on the route to destination. This paper aims at improving the latter by enhancing the forecast with a notion of uncertainty. The prediction algorithm itself learns from driver and traffic data in a training set to generate accurate, driver-individual energy consumption forecasts. Thereby, a central part of the algorithm is the explicit evaluation of the traffic situation by classifying the traffic phases. With the help of this methodology, individual forecasts can be made more precise since they are highly dependent on surrounding traffic. To demonstrate the validity of the algorithms, the performance is evaluated using real test drive data comprising multiple drivers. On the basis of the performance evaluation, both the superiority of stochastic algorithms over deterministic predictions and the improvement of predictive performance by evaluating explicit traffic phases can be shown. Implementing the proposed methodology in modern day electric vehicles could reduce range anxiety and ultimately increase acceptance of electric mobility worldwide.