期刊
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
卷 46, 期 14, 页码 8329-8337出版社
AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
DOI: 10.1029/2019GL083978
关键词
climate sensitivity; climate models
资金
- National Science Foundation (NSF)
- National Center for Atmospheric Research - NSF [1852977]
- Regional and Global Model Analysis (RGMA) component of the Earth and Environmental System Modeling Program of the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research (BER) [DE-FC02-97ER62402]
The Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2) has an equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) of 5.3K. ECS is an emergent property of both climate feedbacks and aerosol forcing. The increase in ECS over the previous version (CESM1) is the result of cloud feedbacks. Interim versions of CESM2 had a land model that damped ECS. Part of the ECS change results from evolving the model configuration to reproduce the long-term trend of global and regional surface temperature over the twentieth century in response to climate forcings. Changes made to reduce sensitivity to aerosols also impacted cloud feedbacks, which significantly influence ECS. CESM2 simulations compare very well to observations of present climate. It is critical to understand whether the high ECS, outside the best estimate range of 1.5-4.5K, is plausible.
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