期刊
CELL
卷 178, 期 3, 页码 699-+出版社
CELL PRESS
DOI: 10.1016/j.cell.2019.06.011
关键词
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资金
- National Cancer Institute [R01CA188298, R01CA233975, R01CA229766, U01CA194389, R25CA180993]
- Damon Runyon Cancer Research Foundation [71-14, 09-16]
- American Society of Hematology Scholar Award
- Leukemia and Lymphoma Society Scholar Award
- V Foundation for Cancer Research Abeloff Scholar Award
- Conquer Cancer Foundation of the American Society of Clinical Oncology Young Investigator Award
- Emerson Collective Cancer Research Fund
- Stinehart/Reed Award
- Shanahan Family Fund
- NIH [1-DP2-CA186569]
- Ludwig Institute for Cancer Research
- NATIONAL CANCER INSTITUTE [ZIABC011914] Funding Source: NIH RePORTER
Accurate prediction of long-term outcomes remains a challenge in the care of cancer patients. Due to the difficulty of serial tumor sampling, previous prediction tools have focused on pretreatment factors. However, emerging non-invasive diagnostics have increased opportunities for serial tumor assessments. We describe the Continuous Individualized Risk Index (CIRI), a method to dynamically determine outcome probabilities for individual patients utilizing risk predictors acquired over time. Similar to win probability models in other fields, CIRI provides a real-time probability by integrating risk assessments throughout a patient's course. Applying CIRI to patients with diffuse large B cell lymphoma, we demonstrate improved outcome prediction compared to conventional risk models. We demonstrate CIRI's broader utility in analogous models of chronic lymphocytic leukemia and breast adenocarcinoma and perform a proof-of-concept analysis demonstrating how CIRI could be used to develop predictive biomarkers for therapy selection. We envision that dynamic risk assessment will facilitate personalized medicine and enable innovative therapeutic paradigms.
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