A methodology to identify potential markets for small-scale solar thermal power generators

This paper presents an innovative methodology to perform market analysis of a new solar power generation technology based on parabolic dish and micro gas turbine engines. Technical, economic, social and political parameters of influence are combined together into a single figure of merit: index of market potential. This index is an original approach enabling the identification of the potential markets for this technology, tackling the inverse problem (from technology to market identification) in lieu of the usual direct problem (determining the interest of a technology in a predefined region). The paper takes into account the availability of solar energy, population distribution, intensity of the electricity consumption, economic indicators, business environment and legal framework for a set of more than twenty countries. Risk assessment tools at various levels are also built into the numerical tool, which is not the case in similar works reviewed by the authors. Finally, the methodology includes a probabilistic approach to handling uncertainty in the input data. The result of this confirms that the methodology is robust and is not very affected by changes in the initial assumptions. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.