Body Mass Index Trajectories During Young Adulthood and Incident Hypertension: A Longitudinal Cohort in Chinese Population

Background-This longitudinal study aims to characterize longitudinal body mass index (BMI) trajectories during young adulthood (20-40 years) and examine the impact of level-independent BMI trajectories on hypertension risk. Methods and Results-The cohort consisted of 3271 participants (1712 males and 1559 females) who had BMI and blood pressure (BP) repeatedly measured 4 to 11 times during 2004 to 2015 and information on incident hypertension. Four distinct trajectory groups were identified using latent class growth mixture model: low-stable (n=1497), medium-increasing (n=1421), high-increasing (n=291), sharp-increasing (n=62). Model-estimated levels and linear slopes of BMI at each age point between ages 20 and 40 were calculated in 1-year intervals using the latent class growth mixture model parameters and their first derivatives, respectively. Compared with the low-stable group, the hazard ratios and 95% CI were 2.42 (1.88, 3.11), 4.25 (3.08, 5.87), 11.17 (7.60, 16.41) for the 3 increasing groups, respectively. After adjusting for covariates, the standardized odds ratios and 95% CI of model-estimated BMI level for incident hypertension increased in 20 to 35 years, ranging from 0.80 (0.72-0.90) to 1.59 (1.44-1.75); then decreased gradually to 1.54 (1.42-1.68). The standardized odds ratios of level-adjusted linear slopes increased from 1.22 (1.09-1.37) to 1.79 (1.59-2.01) at 20 to 24 years; then decreased rapidly to 1.12 (0.95-1.32). Conclusions-These results indicate that the level-independent BMI trajectories during young adulthood have significant impact on hypertension risk. Age between 20 and 30 years is a crucial period for incident hypertension, which has implications for early prevention.