Parameter estimation and identifiability in a neural population model for electro-cortical activity

Electroencephalography (EEG) provides a non-invasive measure of brain electrical activity. Neural population models, where large numbers of interacting neurons are considered collectively as a macroscopic system, have long been used to understand features in EEG signals. By tuning dozens of input parameters describing the excitatory and inhibitory neuron populations, these models can reproduce prominent features of the EEG such as the alpha-rhythm. However, the inverse problem, of directly estimating the parameters from fits to EEG data, remains unsolved. Solving this multi-parameter non-linear fitting problem will potentially provide a real-time method for characterizing average neuronal properties in human subjects. Here we perform unbiased fits of a 22-parameter neural population model to EEG data from 82 individuals, using both particle swarm optimization and Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling. We estimate how much is learned about individual parameters by computing Kullback-Leibler divergences between posterior and prior distributions for each parameter. Results indicate that only a single parameter, that determining the dynamics of inhibitory synaptic activity, is directly identifiable, while other parameters have large, though correlated, uncertainties. We show that the eigenvalues of the Fisher information matrix are roughly uniformly spaced over a log scale, indicating that the model is sloppy, like many of the regulatory network models in systems biology. These eigenvalues indicate that the system can be modeled with a low effective dimensionality, with inhibitory synaptic activity being prominent in driving system behavior. Author summary Electroencephalography (EEG), where electrodes are used to measure electric potential on the outside of the scalp, provides a simple, non-invasive way to study brain activity. Physiological interpretation of features in EEG signals has often involved use of collective models of neural populations. These neural population models have dozens of input parameters to describe the properties of inhibitory and excitatory neurons. Being able to estimate these parameters by direct fits to EEG data holds the promise of providing a real-time non-invasive method of inferring neuronal properties in different individuals. However, it has long been impossible to fit these nonlinear, multi-parameter models effectively. Here we describe fits of a 22-parameter neural population model to EEG spectra from 82 different subjects, all exhibiting alpha-oscillations. We show how only one parameter, that describing inhibitory dynamics, is constrained by the data, although all parameters are correlated. These results indicate that inhibitory synaptic activity plays a central role in the generation and modulation of the alpha-rhythm in humans.