Has China's Pilot Emissions Trading Scheme Influenced the Carbon Intensity of Output?

China launched the pilot construction of the carbon emission trading scheme (ETS) in 2011. The pilots have been running for many years. Does ETS significantly restrain the increase of carbon emission intensity? Based on China's panel data for provinces and industries, this paper uses the policy assessment method to evaluate the inhibition by ETS of carbon emission intensity. The assessment scope includes six provincial pilots and pilot industries covered by ETS. The results show that ETS has significant suppression of carbon emission intensity only in Beijing and Guangdong. There is no significant impact on the carbon emission intensity of Tianjin, Shanghai, Chongqing, and Hubei. Through the carbon emission intensity inhibition analysis of the industries covered by ETS from Beijing and Chongqing, the results of the production and supply of electric power, steam and hot water, petroleum processing and coking in Beijing have a significant impact on the ETS. Only the smelting and pressing of ferrous metals in Chongqing has a significant impact on the ETS.