Model uncertainties and bias in SHEAR strength predictions of slender stirrup reinforced concrete beams

Prior studies point to high model uncertainty in shear prediction. Model factors for various shear prediction models are characterized here, based on a recent and well-vetted database of shear failures. Characterization includes estimation of main statistical parameters; and importantly also correlation and regression analysis to assess consistency of model factors over ranges of design parameters. The aim of the study is to identify models suitable for use as general probabilistic model (GPM) in future reliability assessments. The Variable Strut Inclination Method (VSIM), shear level of approximation III of the fib Model Code 2010, and ACI 318 displayed high bias, variability and various correlations with shear input parameters which make them unsuitable choices for GPM. The compression chord capacity model and the modified compression field theory displayed low bias and variability with consistent model factors over the ranges of shear design parameters and are thus suitable as GPM. Concerns stem from observed inconsistency in capacity prediction by VSIM and size effect in ACI. Reliability assessment is advised.