期刊
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
卷 10, 期 -, 页码 -出版社
NATURE PORTFOLIO
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-09776-9
关键词
-
资金
- Department for International Development/Natural Environment Research Council via the Future Climate for Africa (FCFA) [NE/M017214/1, NE/M017230/1]
- FCFA HyCRISTAL project [NE/M019985/1]
- AMMA-2050 project [NE/M019977/1]
- Joint UK BEIS/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme [GA01101]
- NERC [NE/M02038X/1, NE/M019985/1, ncas10016, NE/M019977/1, NE/M017214/1, NE/M020428/1] Funding Source: UKRI
African society is particularly vulnerable to climate change. The representation of convection in climate models has so far restricted our ability to accurately simulate African weather extremes, limiting climate change predictions. Here we show results from climate change experiments with a convection-permitting (4.5 km grid-spacing) model, for the first time over an Africa-wide domain (CP4A). The model realistically captures hourly rainfall characteristics, unlike coarser resolution models. CP4A shows greater future increases in extreme 3-hourly precipitation compared to a convection-parameterised 25 km model (R25). CP4A also shows future increases in dry spell length during the wet season over western and central Africa, weaker or not apparent in R25. These differences relate to the more realistic representation of convection in CP4A, and its response to increasing atmospheric moisture and stability. We conclude that, with the more accurate representation of convection, projected changes in both wet and dry extremes over Africa may be more severe.
作者
我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。
推荐
暂无数据