Predicting the Severity of Pancreatic Fistula after Pancreaticoduodenectomy: Overweight and Blood Loss as Independent Risk Factors: Retrospective Analysis of 277 Patients

Background: Risk factors for pancreatic fistula (POPF) occurrence after pancreaticoduodectomy (PD) are mostly known. Identifying those that are linked to clinically relevant POPF (Grades B and C) (CR-POPF) is critical, as CR-POPF is associated with more complications and a higher mortality rate. Methods: From 2004 to 2016, 270 consecutive patients who underwent PD in two academic centers were compared retrospectively according to the occurrence of CR-POPF. Results: A series of patients with a median age of 64.5 years (range 30.6-88.7 years) underwent PD. They were allocated to two groups: CR-POPF (Grades B and C)(n = 74; 27.4%) and without clinically relevant POPF (cr-POPF) (no fistula formation or Grade A) (n = 196). Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma was the main indication for the procedure (58.5%). Post-operative complications Clavien-Dindo I/II and Clavien-Dindo III/IV and in-hospital death occurred in 109 (40.4%), 67 (24.8%), and 18 (6.7%) patients, respectively. After univariate analysis, CR-POPF was associated with a Body Mass Index (BMI) >25 kg/m(2) (p < 0.0001), pancreatic duct diameter <3 mm (p = 0.047), soft pancreas texture to palpation (p = 0.037), and peri-operative transfusion (p < 0.001). After multivariate analysis, high BMI (p = 0.026), transfusion (p < 0.001), length of hospital stay (p < 0.0001), and in-hospital death (p = 0.004) were associated with CR-POPF. Conclusions: In-hospital death and length of hospital stay after PD are related to CR-POPF. A BMI >25 kg/m(2) and peri-operative blood transfusion are objective risk factors for CR-POPF.