期刊
TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH PART B-METHODOLOGICAL
卷 122, 期 -, 页码 249-264出版社
PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.trb.2019.01.007
关键词
Port capacity; Port competition; Heterogeneous ports; Investment size and timing; Real options game; Strategic real options
类别
资金
- Research Foundation Flanders (FWD)
Ports worldwide operate in an uncertain environment and compete with nearby ports to attract cargo. The extent of competition is influenced by the geographical location and differentiated services offered at ports. In this paper, we study the flexible investment decision of two ports with an option to delay investment in a capacity level that is not ex-ante determined. Ports compete on quantity (Cournot competition) under demand uncertainty and congestion. In a leader-follower timing game, we consider both the entry deterrence and accommodation strategies for the leader port. If one of the ports only has a limited cost advantage, the leader role will be endogenous and will be the result of preemption. Uncertainty is included in the model by a geometric Brownian motion, allowing us to analyse the impact of growth and uncertainty (variability) independently. We find that higher growth, uncertainty and port customers' aversion to waiting lead to a larger project installed at a later moment. If competition intensifies however, the option value of waiting is reduced, leading to earlier investment, but surprisingly also in less capacity. Finally, if more shares of the ports are publicly owned, the investment will be larger and will take place earlier. (C) 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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