期刊
RELIABILITY ENGINEERING & SYSTEM SAFETY
卷 194, 期 -, 页码 -出版社
ELSEVIER SCI LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2019.05.001
关键词
Human reliability analysis; Radiotherapy; Safety analysis; Risk analysis; Expert judgment; Human error
资金
- PSI inter-departmental funding initiative (CROSS)
- PSI's Center for Proton Therapy
- PSI's Energy Divisions
- Future Resilient Systems program
- Future Resilient Systems program at the Singapore-ETH Centre [FI 370074011]
This paper develops the quantification framework of a new Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) method, for application to the radiotherapy domain. The methods reference data is obtained via expert judgment, due to the lack of domain-specific data. To avoid shortcomings of directly eliciting probabilities, experts are asked to assess the importance of specific factors for the failure probability, elicited on a qualitative scale. Each assessment is converted into statements about the order of magnitude of the probability value. The values are combined via an expert aggregation method, developed specifically for HRA. The paper includes an attempt to validate the elicitation against applicable Human Error Probability (HEP) values from existing HRA methods (thus, convergent validation). Indeed, some tasks are generic in nature and data can be assumed to be sector-independent (e.g. checking activities, interacting with interfaces, simple tasks such as identifying objects or characters/numbers). Differences in the values are identified and, when possible, linked to differences in the performance context characteristic of the field of application of the different methods.
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