期刊
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
卷 116, 期 23, 页码 11195-11200出版社
NATL ACAD SCIENCES
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1817205116
关键词
sea-level rise; climate predictions; ice sheets; Greenland; Antarctica
资金
- European Research Council [694188]
- Royal Society Wolfson Merit award
- NASA [NNX17AD55G, 80NSSC17K0698]
- NSF [ICER-1663807]
- Rutgers University School of Arts and Sciences
- Princeton University Center for Policy Research on Energy and the Environment
- City of New York and its Department of Environmental Protection
- Resources for the Future
- European Research Council (ERC) [694188] Funding Source: European Research Council (ERC)
- NASA [NNX17AD55G, 1003254] Funding Source: Federal RePORTER
Despite considerable advances in process understanding, numerical modeling, and the observational record of ice sheet contributions to global mean sea-level rise (SLR) since the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, severe limitations remain in the predictive capability of ice sheet models. As a consequence, the potential contributions of ice sheets remain the largest source of uncertainty in projecting future SLR. Here, we report the findings of a structured expert judgement study, using unique techniques for modeling correlations between inter-and intra-ice sheet processes and their tail dependences. We find that since the AR5, expert uncertainty has grown, in particular because of uncertain ice dynamic effects. For a +2 degrees C temperature scenario consistent with the Paris Agreement, we obtain a median estimate of a 26 cm SLR contribution by 2100, with a 95th percentile value of 81 cm. For a +5 degrees C temperature scenario more consistent with unchecked emissions growth, the corresponding values are 51 and 178 cm, respectively. Inclusion of thermal expansion and glacier contributions results in a global total SLR estimate that exceeds 2 m at the 95th percentile. Our findings support the use of scenarios of 21st century global total SLR exceeding 2 m for planning purposes. Beyond 2100, uncertainty and projected SLR increase rapidly. The 95th percentile ice sheet contribution by 2200, for the +5 degrees C scenario, is 7.5 m as a result of instabilities coming into play in both West and East Antarctica. Introducing process correlations and tail dependences increases estimates by roughly 15%.
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